Friday, October 4, 2013

More Keynesianisms

The central principle of investment is to go contrary to the general opinion, on the grounds that if everyone agreed about its merit, then investment is inevitably too dear and therefore unattractive.

"It is the duty of serious investors to accept depreciation of their holdings...an investor should be aiming primarily at long period results and judged solely on these."

I am clear that the idea of wholesale shifts if for various reasons (impractical) and indeed undesirable. Most of those who attempt it sell too late and buy too late, and do both too often, incurring heavy expenses and developing too unsettled and speculative a state of mind.

A careful selection of a few investments...having regard to their cheapness in relation to their probably actual and potential intrinsic value over a period of years ahead and in relation to alternative investments at the time.

His portfolios were idiosyncratic and approach unconventional. He went into equities as an asset class before that became de rigeur. He changed course from top down macro trading to bottom up long term investing.

Principles:
Focus on estimating intrinsic value of a stock - rather than attempt to divine market trends.
Ensure that a sufficiently large margin of safety exists before purchase.
Apply independent judgment in valuing stocks - often a contrarian view.



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