We seem to have forgotten about the problems in the system that should be sources of significant risk. Perhaps the market has discounted all these things already (I don't think so).
(1) Eastern Europe is bankrupt.
(2) Western Europe is struggling to formulate a response and could easily be dragged down by Eastern Europe and declining US demand.
(3) Significant overcapacity in China.
(4) Consumer debt - credit cards will get you every time.
(5) Commercial real estate implosion.
(6) Deleveraging US (and Australian, and English, and Kiwi) consumer = higher savings, lower consumption.
(7) Rising unemployment tide.
(8) 1st wave of lay-offs past - now it is a wait n see game.
(9) State and local govts a mess - nuff said.
(10) State and local pensions, and corporate pensions a mess.
(11) Massive fiscal deficits leads to higher taxes. But who is going to buy that stuff.
(12) Just for added measure...the swine flu.
*don't forget the potential for a terrorist attack (although I highly doubt, even a successful one would have 1/100th the impact that 9/11 had).
No comments:
Post a Comment