Thursday, May 7, 2009

Don't Overstay Your Welcome

The most important thing for me to remind myself of right now is that, in spite of being highly sanguine on the medium term economic outlook, after a 58% decline, the market is offering up the best long term expected returns we've seen since probably 1992.

I need to be careful that I don't miss the forest for the trees.

I mention all this after reflecting upon Jeremy Grantham's quarterly letter (hit the spot), and looking at some of the bear market charts at dshort.com (this guy has put together some great charts). The problem for most people who are right about something is that they tend to overstay their welcome, and that is the problem facing the bears at this point.

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