Monday, May 11, 2009

The Benefit of the Doubt

By moving 39% off the bottom in a nice V-shape, the market is essentially giving the economy the benefit of the doubt.

The move is one of relief (that the financial sector hasn't imploded) and hope for so-called green shoots. If neither of those propositions are substantiated then we will likely see a sizeable retracement (not sure whether we will go below 666...but who knows).

As it is, the bears are trapped and are being squeezed into the market, and we are unlikely to get economic clarity until 3Q09.

Enjoy your Summer!

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