Been fading this rally, and will probably continue to do so. One of the reasons has been, because that was one of my mistakes on the way down (not fading the bounces...I tried numerous times but was always looking for larger bounces than what occurred). So I don't want to be caught out again by another leg down. But it is looking more and more likely at this point that the play going forward will be to "buy the dips" vs "sell the rips."
I'm probably more pessimistic on the fundamental economic outlook than the consensus, but have also been pretty bullish on long term equity market returns. Anytime you get a 60% collapse in equity prices, this usually portends significantly higher expected returns in the future.
Having pitched Standard and Poors 500 fair value around 900-950, we have obviously had tremendous overshoot on the downside. But the difficulty is managing long in an environment where fear and momentum are running rampant, and you just don't know where the bottom is.
Given my dour view of the likely economic recovery, I think we're going to trade a range on the Standard and Poors 500 of between 700-1100 over the next 2-5 yrs.
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