Friday, May 1, 2009

Bear Markets - The Tyranny of the Numbers

Bear markets are the best places in the world to hang out - if you get it right. The converse is true, if you get it wrong.

Here is an example:

Index at Point 1 = 1575 Starting Wealth = $100
Index at Point 2 = 787 Return = -50% Wealth at Point 2 = $50
Index at Point 3 = 1417 Return = 80% Wealth at Point 3 = $90
Index at Point 4 = 850 Return = -40% Wealth at Point 4 = $54
Index at Point 2 = 1275 Return = 50% Wealth at Point 5 = $81

But you get the picture. A bear market throws up great rally opportunities. In the example above, we had two rallies that averaged 65% returns, while we had two declines that averaged -45%. But the tyranny of compounding in a volatile market skews the return distribution against you.

The current rally notwithstanding, one of the strangest things about this market so far, has been the relatively benign rallies we have seen. Of course, if you measure the start of the bear market from 2000, then you might object to that characterization (Oct 2002-Oct 2007 was a pretty good time), but I am, of course referring to the recent crisis (post Oct 2007).

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