John Mauldin was an early and vocal proponent of a "muddle through" economy.
He made a point in his recent newsletter regarding unemployment which I haven't heard spoken about too much and which I think is true - with important implications. He said,
"But we are permanently destroying jobs in this recession, all up and down the food chain and in numerous industries. There will be fewer cars made, for a long time. Less demand for financial service jobs. Housing construction will be a long time recovering, well into 2011 or 2012."
Not only do I think he is right, ie. that there are numerous industries in the US that have been significantly changed, but it also brings up the question of where will the new jobs will come from? What industries/sectors will lead us out of recession? What will be the positive catalysts? (govt spending!). If our last recovery was characterized as a jobless recovery, what is going to make this one different? The most startling revelation is that it implies a longer and deeper recession than what the consensus is currently factoring.
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