Wednesday, May 6, 2009

Energy Cycles...What Of Them!

From what I can gather, the US is sitting on a mountain of natural gas (access to shale has been a game changer). As a result, we will continue to see significant boom-bust cycles in the natural gas space (we're currently near the bottom of the cycle).

The same cannot be said for oil. From what I can gather, global oil supply is much more constrained. The oil supply and demand curves are highly inelastic in the short to medium term. As such, any uptick in demand, will put significant upward pressure on oil prices.

Note: OPEC has taken a little supply off the market in response to the decline in global demand, but we would very quickly come up against the supply constraint should any normalcy return.

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