Two Things You've Got To Get Right*

As an asset manager there are two things you've got to get right.

(1) Where is the money coming from?
(2) Where is the money going?

If you have your finger on (1) and (2) then you have a good chance of getting the trend right. And if you get the trend right, then you can make a whole lot of mistakes, and still be a genius.

At a big picture level, the money seems to be coming from Asian Central banks, sovereign wealth funds, and big bank prop desks (with perhaps the prop desks being the most important player).

In the current environment, there are two subtexts. The first is the USD as the engine of the carry trade. And the second is the use of ETFs and commodities as the preferred vehicle and store of value.

* You've actually got to get a lot of things right. But one of the other things you've got to get right is having the acuity of mind to change position should you be wrong. The trick, like most things in life, is having balance.