Friday, August 7, 2009

Cyclical Tailwinds Dominating Secular Headwinds

The current cyclical tailwinds of stimulative monetary and fiscal policy, and the natural turn in the cycle have transformed the markets disposition and created a more hopeful outlook.

Beware the Ides of March.

Lying in wait are significant secular headwinds (higher taxes and regulation, ongoing deleveraging, structural unemployment, higher savings/lower consumption, greater govt. involvement in the economy, rising inflation, higher energy & food prices) which when combined with the reversal of the current monetary and fiscal stimulus pose a serious problem for the markets recovery and the economy's long term health.

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