Thursday, August 13, 2009

Now, where have I seen this before...

...oh, that's right.

2000-2007. Tech bubble bursts==>Cascading decline in global equities==>Economy in recession==>Fed stimulates with historically low rates==>Govt. provides its share of fiscal stimulus==>Proportional recession averted==>Markets rebound strongly==>Economy gets back on the growth path (although unemployment lagging)==>Global equities continue to demonstrate strength==>Housing and increasing debt become backbones of the recovery==>Energy and commodity prices skyrocket==>All is well with the world.

Fast forward to 2007-2009. Housing bubble bursts==>Cascading decline in global equities==>Financial crisis ensues==>Economy in recession==>Fed stimulates with historically low rates==>Govt. provides its share of fiscal stimulus==>Proportional recession averted==>Markets rebound strongly==>Economy stabilizes (although unemployment lagging)...Increasing debt becomes backbone of the economy==>

I wonder how this ends! The only question is what asset class/area will become the investor's bubble of choice? Stay long until they take the punchbowl away.

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