Okay. I feel like a real scrooge. After talking about revolutions, red flags, and policy mistakes, how about something a little more positive.
The economic data is almost unambiguously pointing to a recovery. Historically, this indicates it is time to loosen up and hit for the fences. I'm a little more circumspect than that, but at least I know I'm running uphill.
That having been said. Whatever way you look at it, the numbers have stabilized and in many cases are turning positive. Whether it is...
Leading Economic Indicators (0.7%),
Philly Fed (4.2),
ISM (48.8),
Existing/New Homes Sales (3.6% &11%),
Initial Claims (< 600K),
Consumer Confidence (46.6 and rising),
Industrial Production (0.5%),
Empire Manufacturing (12.08),
Mortgage Apps (5.6%),
House Price Index (0.9%),
NAHB Housing Market Index (18),
Personal Spending (0.4%),
Unemployment Rate (9.4%),
Domestic Vehicle Sales (8.4m),
Nonfarm Productivity (6.4%),
Factory Orders (0.4%),
Avg. Hourly Earnings (0.2%),
...the numbers are generally moving in the right direction (retail sales, durable goods, consumer credit, chain store sales, personal consumption are still stuck in neutral).
And it is not just here in the States. Germany and France produced shockingly positive economic growth, house prices in England have turned the corner (can't quite work that one out), China appears to be going gang-busters (with an emphasis on busters), and South America seems to be doing well.
A recovery would be good for everyone. Economic dislocation brings pain and suffering. It isn't just numbers, real lives are effected.
I'm just not sure we have purged our excesses from the system.
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