Tuesday, August 4, 2009

Looking For The Panic

I'm looking for the panic buying of the "I've missed the boat brigade" diving into the market on the back of the new consensus sounding the "all clear" to keep pushing this market up.

There may be good reasons for this market to go up over the long term, but we are fast getting to a point where the reasons for the market to continue its meteoric rise are getting thin. I don't know where that point will be - it could be 1050, it could be 1100, it could be 1150, or even 1200 - but as this market continues to march higher, I think it would be wise to sell into it.

It wouldn't surprise me if the peak of this move marks the top of a longer term trading range, from which the market consolidates its gains and periodically tests the range over the next couple of years. If I had to put a floor on the market it would probably be around 800 or so.

No comments:

Post a Comment