The Problem With Being a Perma-Bear

The problem with being a perma-bear is that there is no joie de vivre.

When one is always looking for disaster to hit, every little twitch, every little movement from the market or the economy signals impending doom. It is hard to believe that the market might actually go up when one's underlying belief is that disaster is just around the corner.

All the foibles of behavioral bias manifest within one's outlook and actions. As such, it is hard to see the trees for the forest.

It seems to me that we are committing the same mistakes in the present that we have committed in the past. All the signs are there that we will reflate again, only to have to deal with the same problems again in the future. It is the timing of the "again in the future" that is so hard to forecast.