It takes a brave man to...

...call a double dip.

The 'new normal' thesis is both eloquent and reasonable. But it takes a brave man to call a double dip. Originally the bears were calling for some sort of mega-recession. Now that we're showing signs of bottoming, they've had to revise that to a double dip. That makes some sense, but it is a big call.

History and current economic signs weigh against the thesis. We have seen very few double dip recessions in history. Usually they are caused by some sort of policy mistake (which I think has a greater than normal chance of happening - both monetary and fiscal). Probably most likely is some sort of muddle through in which the economy struggles to find traction, but doesn't actually go down again.

Time will tell, as they say. But the future seems more murky than normal.