Wednesday, April 8, 2015

Pressure Points In The Market

I just took a look at areas of prospective bubbles in the market the other day and concluded there was nothing significant poking its head out. But I wanted to revisit that question and articulate or expand on a couple more pressure points in the market today:

  1. The large decline in oil prices has crushed the energy sector which had been one of the drivers of growth in the US. There may be more risk and implications there than what the market is indicating.
  2. The large decline in commodity prices, predicated on the slowdown in China, which has crushed Australia, Brazil and Canada. Australia, China, Canada and the UK have large residential real estate bubbles.
  3. ECB QE and the financial repression of NIRP is leading to a recalibrating of currencies and a fight to the bottom. 
  4. Japan QE and rebalancing could push Japan over the edge as the curtain is finally pulled back.
  5. Geopolitical risks could escape beyond borders and proxies - Ukraine, Syria.


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