Thursday, February 25, 2010

A risk you've got to take

Ever since the govt decided to be fully committed to "solving" the crisis, the key has been to re-boot growth. Failure to do so, means you end up in a worse position than when you started.

The paradox, or the dilemma, is that in order to re-boot the economy you must cover the growth shortfall by creating demand (in the hope that this artifical stimulus will get you across the growth divide). Unfortunately, given the weak starting position of the govt's balance sheet, options are limited and running out, and any failure to re-ignite growth poses serious risk to the economy and the financial system (again).

In other words, having already committed to the current course of action, the government has no choice, but to go for it (it is already "all in"). Conversely, if it fails and the markets lose faith, then we have a bigger problem on our hands.

With each lapse or fault in the market/economy, the government will continue to bail with all its might. It has no choice. But in so doing, it raises the chance of bringing about a collapse in the system (markets call their bluff...an emperor with no clothes). Confidence is a psychological phenomenon. It is transitory. The general stability of the markets/economy to which we are accustomed, mask a more fragile reality.

Sadly, the risk you've got to take increases the chance of failure.

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