Thursday, February 4, 2010

Disconnect

We're seeing signs of a disconnect.

General economic trends are moving in the right direction, earnings are coming through better than expected.

And yet, the market is getting sold!

Welcome to a balance sheet recession.

We have hollowed out core economic institutions (bankrupt state governments, overleveraged consumer, increasing financial risk on the sovereign) which mean bombs can go off anytime (after all it is a confidence game) and there is less margin for error.

Greater market volatility likely to ensue.

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