Friday, February 5, 2010

A tough circle to square

Is global infrastructure an asset class? Don't know, don't care.

It doesn't matter. What matters is that there are great hopes and great needs to build out and support infrastructure (water, power, transportation) around the world over the next 20-30 years. I saw in one place that they estimated global infrastructure spending at around $35 trillion over the next 20 years. Even if it is half that amount (which is probably more likely), it is a substantial amount of money.

Quite apart from the obvious need and the potential investment opportunity, the case for global infrastructure development begs the question. Who is going to sponsor the development? Where are the funds going to come from to pay for it? and, What will be the cost of those funds?

Infrastructure sponsorship is generally the domain of government. But governments the world over are going to be balance sheet and budget constrained as they pay out on the accumulated obligations of the past while trying to meet the generous promises of the future. Consumers (at least developed country consumers) will be going through their own weight loss program, but at least in cutting back they are likely to be saving a little more and so provide a source of funds (although it will be constrained because they are going to be tapped out by higher taxes to pay for everything and higher costs associated with paying for the new/improved services - not much discretionary spending in the future). Finally, corporations. They are going to be only too happy to provide the product/services to develop infrastructure, but don't have the independent financial capacity to borrow sufficiently to fund projects. A conundrum.

When demand is greater than supply, prices go up. With government needs for funding set to rise, massive global works projects waiting in the wings, it only makes sense that the price of money goes up.

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