Strategas make some good points

In a piece entitled, "Bar bets for restless financial professionals," Jason Trennert offers several constructive observations.

I think he quite rightly points out that peak earnings this cycle are unlikely to surpass peak earnings from the prior cycle ($91.47). That, despite the fact that we have had a 600% rally in EPS from the pit (GAAP EPS fell 92% top to bottom in the financial crisis), and 2011 estimates are already above the prior peak at $96 EPS (bottom-up estimates are always greater than top down estimates...top down estimates pitch S&P 500 EPS at about $81). The reason is simple and reasonable (but does require buying into a reversion to the mean assumption). "At the peak, Financials accounted for almost 2/3rds of S&P earnings...it is difficult to see another industry that could make up the difference over the next few years." If you believe that we were in an earnings bubble brought on by an oversized Financial sector that also helped leverage Industrial earnings, then it is hard to believe, given the reversal of that trend, that we will be quickly surpassing those bloated earnings. [the only industries with sufficient size and operating leverage to do so would be Energy and Materials combined in a cyclical climax - which would likely weigh upon other sectors). The takeaway from this observation and the concomitant current expectation is that the market is likely to be disappointed.

A second point he makes is that he thinks it unlikely the US savings rate will eclipse 8% this decade. The main reason posited is a "subpar expansion and structurally high unemployment." An unemployed, tapped out consumer makes for someone just trying to hang on, rather than someone with the breathing room to squirrel away savings. And to support his contention, he points to the savings experience during the recession. He is also implicitly disavowing the potential for the current crisis to bring on "a true culture of austerity."