Tuesday, July 29, 2014

Got To Know What You're Good At

One way to know what you are good at is to identify those things you are bad at.

I'm bad at recognizing the dislocative disruption of new players and new trends. I see the trends but I don't extrapolate their likely diffusing effects very well. At the same time, I tend to give to much credit/strength to the incumbent(s), eg. Nokia.

Another area I am not particularly good at is identifying who the next big thing is going to be, ie. emerging leader. Part of the reason is that the market has already given the name a huge multiple and I can't bring myself to join in the party (late). Of course, if something is the next big thing, then its addressable market is a multiple larger than it is at the front end and it warrants the high multiple (that in hindsight now looks like a great price).

I'm a sucker for discounted relative value plays. Currently, CALL, ESI, ACI and OUTR are on my radar. But there is usually some good reason why they traded at an apparently steeped discount to their peers. If it is too good to be true, then it is probably too good to be true. I can't tell you the number of times I've been attracted to a name (sometimes bought it) only to find out there were shenanigans going on that I didn't know about (but the smart money did).

I am good at buying companies when the market has thrown the baby out with the bath water. This is an incredibly dangerous strategy, but it is in keeping with my own investing personality (DNA).

I don't have great vision for choosing the next great growth stock, but I have the courage to buy when/after the market has thrown something on the trash heap.




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