Generalized comments from the Hilltop Holdings 2Q conference call with relevance to the broader economy:
Oil & gas service firms are toast.
Houston is slowing. Austin is hot.
Refi mortgage companies are toast.
Showing posts with label macro. Show all posts
Showing posts with label macro. Show all posts
Monday, August 3, 2015
Tuesday, May 12, 2015
Why Won't This Market Go Down?
The fundamental reason why this market may not go down (when for all intents and purposes it probably should) is because there are still plenty of investors still sitting on the sidelines just waiting for it to fall to get back in.
I hate the idea that the market level is in fact set by supply and demand rather than fundamentals. But you would argue that supply and demand are a part of fundamentals. Yes and no. Yes in the sense that the market is simply a market with prices set by supply and demand. But no in the sense that the market does not always reflect the fundamental economic reality of an asset.
When supply and demand are more a function of sentiment than economics, then perverse outcomes tend to happen.
I hate the idea that the market level is in fact set by supply and demand rather than fundamentals. But you would argue that supply and demand are a part of fundamentals. Yes and no. Yes in the sense that the market is simply a market with prices set by supply and demand. But no in the sense that the market does not always reflect the fundamental economic reality of an asset.
When supply and demand are more a function of sentiment than economics, then perverse outcomes tend to happen.
Inherently Distrustful Of Macro Commentary
I am inherently distrustful of macro commentary, especially if it tries to come up with some pseudo-conspiratorial explanation for what happened attributable to countries, actors, or politicians.
There is usually some truth to what they point to, but the attributing of such calculable intent when none was recognized previously is a stretch.
There is usually some truth to what they point to, but the attributing of such calculable intent when none was recognized previously is a stretch.
Tuesday, July 15, 2014
Contrary investing - the trapdoor and the panic
Two good strategies. Both require tremendous patience and discipline. One is a micro approach, the other a macro angle.
The first is the trapdoor spider strategy. You keep your powder dry waiting patiently for the market to throw you a prize. The prize is a great company that is overowned and has stumbled. Problems and concerns have arisen, but there is no fundamental rearranging of the deck chairs. Just a misstep. These things happen. Could be a 1 to 2 year workout. Don't buy too soon. The stock will bottom before the worst of the information comes out. When you see it holding fast or rallying on bad news. That is a good sign. But it can take some time for the stock to find its legs again.
The second is a general market panic. Could be a country. Could be an industry. Could be the whole market. Everything is marked down. Fear is rife. Buy the country or industry champion. These are too big to fail, too deeply entwined in the fabric. Again, another 1 to 2 year workout.
The first is the trapdoor spider strategy. You keep your powder dry waiting patiently for the market to throw you a prize. The prize is a great company that is overowned and has stumbled. Problems and concerns have arisen, but there is no fundamental rearranging of the deck chairs. Just a misstep. These things happen. Could be a 1 to 2 year workout. Don't buy too soon. The stock will bottom before the worst of the information comes out. When you see it holding fast or rallying on bad news. That is a good sign. But it can take some time for the stock to find its legs again.
The second is a general market panic. Could be a country. Could be an industry. Could be the whole market. Everything is marked down. Fear is rife. Buy the country or industry champion. These are too big to fail, too deeply entwined in the fabric. Again, another 1 to 2 year workout.
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