I'm not bearish.
I really think the US economy is coming out of its slumber. Most of the signs are pretty good.
The problem is I don't trust the market.
After such a big run over the last year, I can see the market continuing higher. With a little bit of earnings growth (9% projected this year...which could be a stretch, but maybe it isn't) and a little more multiple expansion (say from 15.5x to 18x) the market could easily deliver another 26% return - and even then would not be overly valued. I find myself making these rationalizations. It is easy to do.
The problem is the higher it goes, the less margin for error there is and the more I don't trust it.
When you know you are playing a con(fidence) game, you are always looking to be the first to exit the party (which can make for some bad - kneejerk - decisions).
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