Tuesday, March 13, 2012

The Most Critical Thing

Future prosperity and expansion are entirely dependent upon the ability of the central banks to keep the interest rate genie in the bottle.

I don't know how they have done it so far. But the potential effect of a normalization of interest rates would be massively deleterious.

The treasury market implies long term inflation of about 2%. Assuming a 3% term premium, then normalization would return rates to between 4%-5%.

The debt servicing burden would very quickly rise to an unsustainable level - 15% of the government budget and 12%-15% of personal income. Lock it in while the going is good.

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