Showing posts with label debt servicing. Show all posts
Showing posts with label debt servicing. Show all posts

Tuesday, March 13, 2012

The Most Critical Thing

Future prosperity and expansion are entirely dependent upon the ability of the central banks to keep the interest rate genie in the bottle.

I don't know how they have done it so far. But the potential effect of a normalization of interest rates would be massively deleterious.

The treasury market implies long term inflation of about 2%. Assuming a 3% term premium, then normalization would return rates to between 4%-5%.

The debt servicing burden would very quickly rise to an unsustainable level - 15% of the government budget and 12%-15% of personal income. Lock it in while the going is good.