Thursday, November 10, 2011

Sovereign Debt Crises Have A Long Fuse

About the only thing Greece* has shown us is that sovereign debt "crises" have a long fuse. The Greek crisis erupted in early 2010 and has yet to reach its ultimate zenith.

In recent days, Italian bond yields have risen above 7%, throwing into question the sustainability of Italy's fiscal position, and the potential collapse of efforts to bailout the eurozone.

Equity markets have appeared to ignore the current "crisis." I suspect it is because they see it as a long term problem, with only a small likelihood of a catastrophic collapse any time soon. With Greece as the blueprint for this thinking. This may, or may not, prove correct, but it has frustrated the bears no end. They have been betting upon a rapid conflagration, and are perplexed by the market going up in the face of supposedly rising risks. The greater possibility is for more "can kicking" and the prospect of a long dripfed erosion in confidence. Periodic fires (aka crisis of confidence) are likely break out, but the system can go on for a long period of time before the piper ultimately comes calling.


The real problem in this whole equation is structural fiscal/current account imbalances co-mingled with massive long term contingent liabilities due to generous promises made at various points in the past. In the absence of any serious address of those problems, we know how this story will end. Even when the market is signalling the ultimate end, a bankrupt country can make interest payments on its debt for a long period of time before it eventually calls it quits.

*And let's not forget Japan.

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