Thursday, December 3, 2009

Complacency and Comfort

My sense is that there is a growing feeling of complacency and comfort among market participants with the market's level and rise.

The previous pushback associated with the market's historic rise (both speed and magnitude), has increasingly been lulled to sleep by a certain familiarity and increasing comfort with present levels.

This is dangerous for the simple reason that when you put your guard down, you are more susceptible to a negative surprise. But it is also paradoxical because the more you have your guard up, the greater the chance the market goes higher - climbing the wall of worry is all about drawing the skeptical in from the sidelines.

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