Where Does The Biggest Risk(s) Lie?

In reflecting upon the many doomsayers prognostications regarding systemic risk in the system and their attempts to make the case that it is worse now than in 2008, I see their points but struggle to see the timing. Sure, we are likely to see a cyclical decline or recession. The markets no doubt will be hamstrung by that, but I don't get the sense of a systemic risk event predicated upon a Minskian leverage moment. To be true, corporate balance sheets are not as strong as the aggregate numbers may propose. Much of the cash outstanding is concentrated among a small number of mega sized firms, and that is quickly being netted off against debt issuance to fund stock buybacks. A troubling development in my book and one for caution. There are many who point to the "too big to fail" banks having grown even bigger. There are many who point to the economic recovery being anemic. There are many who point to ZIRP and QE as creating an artifice for asset prices. There are many who point to China. Many who point to the potential for hyperinflation. Many who point to the obesity of the Fed's balance sheet. The global financial system is connected and interconnected. It is a tightly coupled complex system prone to collapse. But I think it takes significant time to build imbalances via increasing leverage brought about by growing confidence leading to complacency and hubris. I don't think we are there yet. The greatest accumulation of debt/leverage has taken place on central bank balance sheets and country debt. I think that is where the next crisis will arise from. But until confidence is punctured, central banks and countries can continue to issue bonds and increase their liabilities. The puncture is likely to be an "emperor has no clothes" moment and will forever re-shape the global financial system as central banks become ground zero for fear and contagion.

Market Avalanches by Jim Sogi

Great analogy

Avalanche prediction requires the study of the snowpack both historically and how the snow structure has metamorphosed over time. One of the prime causes of avalanches are weak layers and slab formation. Weak layers in the snow pack are layers in the snow that cause the snow on top of it to slide off it and down the hill causing an avalanche. Weak layers can be low density snow or an ice layer or hoar frost flakes. Slab avalanches are created when higher density snow bonds together then slides on a weak on steep hill. Avalanches can kill.
Avalanches remind me of markets. You can study market structure historically by looking at the number of trades at a price. Over time the density may change. Market order depth structure is not available in full but could be inferred to some degree. Some parties have access to full book.
The theory is there are weak layers in the market structure that might cause a market avalanche or rapid rise. There may also be dense layers in the market structure. An example is a long bar with big price change but low number if trades. Time may change the number of trades at the prices or depth of orders might affect the reactivity of the bar. And a gap is also an example of a weak layer.