Tuesday, July 14, 2015

Making The Case For Active Management

The key to making the case for active management is to acknowledge at the outset that you are likely to underperform (potentially quite substantially) the markets over the long term. The reason for this is you are likely to sell either too early or too late into a market correction and are likely to either buy too early or too late after a recovery. Timing entries and exits to and from the markets is incredibly imprecise and highly inefficient from a long term investment management perspective.

That having been said, what you are advocating with active management is that you are going to try and reduce your downside by actively taking money off the table when you think the odds are in your favor. The basis for this activity is managing clients emotional wellbeing. The cost of this exercise is reduced upside because you know you are unlikely to time exits and entries perfectly.

You are offering clients the peace of mind of knowing and believing that they have someone out there trying to actively protect their assets. They are willing to forgo some upside because they are happy knowing/believing that the downside is somewhat capped.

A problem occurs when the manager fails to set a stop loss or floor and follows the market down. Usually because of their own behavioral foibles.

I don't think it is unreasonable advocating active management to clients who want to believe they have some semblance of downside protection and realize that it comes at the cost of upside potential.

The problem is clients want it both ways. They want downside protection and unlimited upside potential.

Other issues related to active management are overactive management, ie. chopping and changing market position repeatedly in response to news, and operating within a probability based framework.

Active management is a not unattractive framework for wealthy UHNW investors. The reason is they should want to earn a reasonable return on their wealth in order to preserve its purchasing power and derive a risk premium but they should also want to make sure they don't expose themselves to substantial capital destruction which can happen when markets collapse. Wealthy investors should be more focused on preserving their wealth as compared to growing their wealth. Whether they are or not depends upon the individual and their risk profile.

The irony is that wealthy investors often take more risk than they should because they are 'greedy' for returns. They think because they have been successful the markets somehow owe them greater returns. This is a dangerous trap that many fail to realize until it is too late. The irony is that they seek out active management not to protect their downside but to enhance their upside. And for the most part, they are likely to be sorely disappointed.



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