Monday, June 15, 2015

Serial Correlation Affecting Quality Large Caps In A Panic

Rusty was big on this and I think he was right (although I don't like the conspiracy allusions that are usually drawn with it), and it is not something that you see too much written or talked about.

During the crisis when everyone hit the exits at the same time, quality company large cap stocks got hit just as much, if not more, compared to low quality stocks. The reason being that they were liquid and provided an avenue to exit when other avenues were not as attractive.

In theory this should create an inefficient situation where information based investors (ie. value investors) step in to take advantage of the temporary oversupply in the market. Unfortunately, much of the oversupply was probably being created by value investors as much as any other type of investor and that is why the window of opportunity was so great and the time period for taking advantage greater than normal.

Timing is everything. Contrarians likely bought too soon. Value managers were so abused that they were stuck on the sidelines too long. Growth and momentum guys were just dazed and confused.

But the reality was in a panic, high quality large caps are hit just as much as any other segment precisely because they are a store of value and a ready source of funds.


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