A rising market blinds. Everyone who has held a long position in the market is a genius.
It blinds you to who is skillful and who is just riding the trend. Hint: 95% are riding the trend (but attributing their good fortune to their own skill).
The next major market correction will provide another flush. That is how markets work. Not because they have some innate mental calculation embedded in them, but because markets and their extremes are a reflection of human nature and human psychology.
Many amateur wannabes will be caught in the downdraft because they misunderstood that their returns were due to serendipitous good fortune and not of their own making.
Buffett was right"only when the tide goes out do you discover who has been swimming naked."
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