I've Got A Feeling

I don't think the market is ready to give up its gains. I think we have an upward bias at least until September. October is setting up to be a time when a greater ask is made.

Existential Angst

You can really begin to doubt yourself and your understanding of things when you sit here day after day reading ZeroHedge, Rick Ferri, Ben Carlson, Mebane Faber, The Reformed Broker and Barry Ritholz wondering what do I know and why would I want to compromise my integrity in such an industry.

When I reflect upon the last five-six years with all the things that have transpired (Greek/Southern Europe crisis, Sandy, Abenomics, anemic growth, Iraq/Afghanistan, Ukraine, Syria, China slowdown) and then I match it against the market (which has gone vertical in the last 18 months) I am flabbergasted.I know nothing. I understand nothing.

Where Does The Biggest Risk(s) Lie?

In reflecting upon the many doomsayers prognostications regarding systemic risk in the system and their attempts to make the case that it is worse now than in 2008, I see their points but struggle to see the timing. Sure, we are likely to see a cyclical decline or recession. The markets no doubt will be hamstrung by that, but I don't get the sense of a systemic risk event predicated upon a Minskian leverage moment. To be true, corporate balance sheets are not as strong as the aggregate numbers may propose. Much of the cash outstanding is concentrated among a small number of mega sized firms, and that is quickly being netted off against debt issuance to fund stock buybacks. A troubling development in my book and one for caution. There are many who point to the "too big to fail" banks having grown even bigger. There are many who point to the economic recovery being anemic. There are many who point to ZIRP and QE as creating an artifice for asset prices. There are many who point to China. Many who point to the potential for hyperinflation. Many who point to the obesity of the Fed's balance sheet. The global financial system is connected and interconnected. It is a tightly coupled complex system prone to collapse. But I think it takes significant time to build imbalances via increasing leverage brought about by growing confidence leading to complacency and hubris. I don't think we are there yet. The greatest accumulation of debt/leverage has taken place on central bank balance sheets and country debt. I think that is where the next crisis will arise from. But until confidence is punctured, central banks and countries can continue to issue bonds and increase their liabilities. The puncture is likely to be an "emperor has no clothes" moment and will forever re-shape the global financial system as central banks become ground zero for fear and contagion.