Contrarianism when things are falling is a slightly safer bet than contrarianism when things are rising.
In both cases, you are following the go against the herd dictate - "buy when they are selling and sell when they are buying."
However if you stick your toe in the water at -10% and it goes to -20%, then to -30%, then that is very painful. But at least there is a floor somewhere, and if history is any guide, the market will eventually recover and sometimes will do so in spectacular fashion. So you are better off sucking it up, waiting for the turn and then letting it flow.
Conversely, when the market is moving up and you dip your toe in to sell, it can be incredibly painful watching it go up another 10%, 20%, 30%, because you have no way to recoup that lost opportunity cost and you have no idea how much further it might rise. Even if you know there is a short term limit, you don't know where it is and you can't be assured you'll be able to get your timing right when the dip comes.
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