Friday, March 19, 2010

Chinese disconnect

It has always struck me as strange that most of the Chinese companies traded on US exchanges (including the largest companies) sport significantly higher growth rates and, more importantly, margins than their industry peers located in the US and elsewhere.

Call it Chinese exceptionalism.

Now there are some reasonable explanations for some of it (market closed to foreign competition, govt preference, super growth part of the cycle, only the best make it to an offshore listing, etc.). Growth rates I can understand (although even some of them are suspect). Margins, however, are a slightly different story. The laws of economics talk about diminishing marginal returns to production, capital, and labor weighing on the economic surplus that can be earned in a competitive market.

In the case of the newer, smaller cap companies operating in traditional industries, it stretches credulity that they can grow as fast and earn as super-sized profits as they say.

All this in the context of Chinese companies having a reputation for being low margin, seat-of-the pants businesses.

Buyer beware. If it is too good to be true, it just might be too good to be true.

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