Are we entering a "more normal?"

Man, have I been out of sync with this market.

"Don't fight the tape," and I've been fighting it since July 09.

Followed the good folks at PIMCO and GMO into the "new normal." Consequently stayed away from the cyclicals (big mistake) and also was way too cautious on the Financials.

With the market trudging determinedly higher, investors are slowly, but surely, convincing themselves that we are moving back to normal and are growing in confidence daily. I'm not a card carrying member of that school (yet), but I am worried that my timing could be a tad off (like years!).

The structural problems are real and unsustainable. In the absence of serious change, we know where we are heading. It is only a matter of timing (and that is the hardest part). Another part of my thesis, is that the changed dynamics of the market (new instruments, new vehicles, new players), in conjunction with the the imbalances outstanding, will lead to more compressed market cycles. So, while the historic market cycle has ranged around 5-7 years, we are now likely to experience market cycles of 3-5 years.