Ok. I admit. I have a conservative bias.
Oh, it hurts to admit as such, but it is true.
My conservative bias is, of course, the tendency to hang onto my view for too long, and only slowly adjust it over time. In the trade, it is a sibling to anchoring, overconfidence, and regret, and a cousin to ignorance and arrogance. Those banes of any good investor. None of which makes me happy of course!
Anchoring refers to our tendency to grab onto the irrelevant when faced with uncertainty. Overconfidence relates to the illusion of knowledge (a situation where we think we know more than everyone else) which translates into an illusion of control. Regret is what happens after you have bought or sold an investment (kind of like buyer's or seller's remorse).
*Was inspired to plagiarize these thoughts from James Montier's piece "The folly of forecasting: Ignore all economists, stategists, & analysts"
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