Monday, April 27, 2009

Swine Fears - What to do? What to do? That is the question!

History and probability are probably on the side of this swine flu thing being a non-event (relatively speaking). But it reminds me of the subprime crisis. Initial reaction was contained and managable. But just like subprime had knock-on effects, a flu pandemic has the capacity for systemic risk. The risk in not moving to the sidelines when the future is murky is following the market down as greater fears are realized. With the market up more than 30% since its lows, it seems to me that the current situation is skewed to the downside. My sense is that the market is going with the historic probabilities and not capitulating to fear. And I wonder whether it is making the same misstake again as it did with subprime. Pandemics are low probability events at the very end of the distribution. Unfortunately, that is the catastrophe zone. In the end I am not sure whether it much matters whether this swine flu fear spreads, as it has the potential to arrest the upside momentum, leading to a rolling over of the market.

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