Thursday, April 30, 2009

Are We Getting Set Up?

I can speculate as much as I like about the future, but the fact remains, on most levels, the future remains unknown. This is especially true of trading and investing. When you make a decision (whether it is a buy or a sell) you just don't know if it is going to be a good decision or a bad decision. As such, I don't know whether the present rally is genuine, or whether it is simply a ruse. I can't help but feel we are getting set-up for a reversal though. We could come in tomorrow, a new day and a new month, and suddenly something that hasn't been important before is the all new "important." Do I believe in some complicitous cartel orchestrating these things? No. But sometimes you have to wonder because the price action is just so shonky. For the record, I'm surprised the market is so sanguine about the risks associated with a flu pandemic. If nothing else, it has the ability to disrupt regular discourse for a period of time. And even if it does peter out, my suspicion is that it will rear its head again during the next Northern flu season.

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