Data, Tools, Technology, Accessibility...Not Always Good

More data, more access, more tools...that is the modern moniker.

But it has been devastating for investors.

The more data we have, the greater access to information and tools, only makes for more reactive decision making. The death sentence of good investment management. We think it is good for us, but it preys on our human nature, bleeding us of patience, discipline and conviction.

Investors must be disciplined enough to ignore the news, ignore their statements and to put their investment portfolios into Rumpelstiltskin deep sleep.

They would be much better off.

Forest for the trees

I feel as though I am so caught up in the day to day fear wranglings that are our present situation, that I risk missing the forest for the trees.

One of my problems is that my short term outlook is heavily influenced by my longer term outlook (hard sledging ahead), and it is hard to get away from that.

But at another level, I have the feeling that if only I could step back from the fear abyss, I could see that the market is fine and the current fearalysis provides opportunity on the upside.

Short term could be positive, but if it is...

I think the positive case for the market in the relative short term is reasonable.

(1) We've had a nice correction - cleared technically overbought condition.
(2) The Fed has affirmed "exceptionally low rates for an extended period" - go for it, boys.
(3) The only thing we have an oversupply of right now is doom and gloom - great for climbing that wall of worry and catching people on the sidelines.
(4) Earnings and revenues have been solid leading to positive revisions - got 4Q09 earnings season out of the way, now let us party in the vacuum.
(5) Market valuation is looking very attractive in the context of recovery - come on in the waters fine.
(6) 1H10 GDP has a decent chance of surprising on the upside.
(7) ZIRP drives incentives and therefore market behavior - banks got to do something with that cash.
(8) At some point, the retailees who went to bonds and missed the move will convince themselves that it is safe to get back in - liquidity filip.
(9) EU won't let Greece spoil the party.
(10) Oh yeah. There is more fiscal stimulus from last year due to hit.

And so, although it grates against my bigger picture outlook, I think there is a decent chance we could get a pretty substantial rally. But if it does rally strongly, it sets up a good fade and short.