Relative Performance Performance

This has been a very good week in the relative performance stakes for the SMID strategy (added more than 350bp vs benchmark).

It seems that the relative performance of this strategy goes in spurts. Sometimes there are periods of underperformance, and sometimes there are periods of outperformance. Meanwhile those bursts are punctuated by periods of pretty much par performance.

I don't really know, nor can I explain, why that has been the case. But I find it interesting.

Ones main hope is that there is a positive skew to that measure (:>)

Been Losing Ground In Last Few Days

We've had a huge run in the SMID cap portfolios this year, in spite of being long the market all year.

Relative Performance of US Small-Mid Cap BRI vs. S&P 1000 as of 4/28/09
QTD 1.46%
YTD 9.05%
TTM 2.73%
2Yr 4.35%
3Yr 3.81%

But I have given a little back lately in the wake of the market continuing to rise and am losing ground again today (I began selling into the rally when the Standard and Poors 500 went through 850, and am of the mind to continue selling into any rally and put on inverse ETFs, especially if it goes crazy).

The market has absorbed the swine flu fears and is powering higher with tremendous momentum behind it. We've experienced a sea-change in sentiment and there is a sense that those on the sidelines and those short the market are getting squeezed back into it. As such it has the potential to see explosive action on the upside.

Article by Willem Buiter on his FT blog encapsulates my thoughts and concerns (http://blogs.ft.com/maverecon/2009/04/green-shoots-grounds-for-cautious-pessimism/) and indicates where I am at.

Tightly Coupled System

This is an anecdotal observation. It seems to me that the SMID cap marketplace has changed from a reasonably tightly coupled system to a much more free-wheeling one (I know I am not using these terms in a technically correct sense, but they convey the idea of what I am trying to get across). This relates to the observation that in the old days, ie. prior to August 2007, the daily relative performance of the SMID cap strategy vs the Standard & Poors 1000 was pretty stable and never diverged by much more than 20-30bp, even on a big day. This was the general norm, except that you would always go into earnings season hoping that the skew would be one of upside surprises (vs downside surprises). In contrast, it seems to me that daily relative performance gyrations of +/- 50-100bp are not uncommon now and this seems to be the new normal (at least in my space).