Secular Cycle vs Cyclical Forces

The secular cycle portends the positivism of growth, expansion and rising productivity. It also increasingly includes certain headwinds from changing demographics over the next 50 years.

Cyclical stimulus (monetary and fiscal) has managed to delay, defer and extend the full impact of the prior cycle's contraction. The question is whether such actions have got us over the hump or whether there will be a price to be paid? and if so, what the price will be?

The price is likely to be a rebalancing of labor/capital wealth distribution (probably through taxes) and lower growth. To some extent we have already seen some of those factors playing out: higher taxes and lower relative growth.

Long Cycles, Business Cycles, Market Cycles...Cycles, Cycles, Cycles

We are 54 months into the upcycle (in the market) with a 160% return off the bottom.

Here is an interesting set of reference points: