Tuesday, February 24, 2015

Current Economic/Market Flashpoints

Unprecedented debt accumulation in China, US, Japan, Australia, UK and other places.

The large decline in oil decimates one of the primary drivers of growth in the US.

The large decline in commodity prices due to the slowdown in China crushes Canada, Brazil and Australia.

Large residential real estate bubbles in Canada, UK, Australia, NZ and China undermine banks in those countries.

QE in Japan and by the ECB sets up a race to the bottom in the currency wars. US can't exit QE because it would blow apart global currency markets.

NIRP set up incentive structures leading to asset mispricings and misallocation of resources.

Financial repression and the failure to reform or clear markets is manifesting in deflation. 

Geopolitical instability with potential spillover effects: Ukraine, Syria, Grexit, oil squeeze on Iran & Russia.


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