Saturday, September 6, 2014

The Conceit of Value Investing

Value investors rightly argue that if you focus on acquiring undervalued assets, ie. assets trading below intrinic value (whatever that is...certainly no objective measure...a post for another day), then the market will eventually come around to recognizing the firm is worth more than what it is currently and start bidding up the price.

The irony or conceit of value investing is that it is generally in a bullish (positive growth) economic environment that either the company's fortunes turnaround or the market has pushed the value of growth and momentum names so high that it is now looking for valuation arbs and comes down to the value end of the market to find those opportunities. A positive economic environment gives the market the confidence to take a punt on a distressed asset and time is the healer of all things (which is why value performs best at the end of a cycle - it is playing catch-up).

Value investors will also argue that value investing works in down markets because you have purchased assets at depressed prices and that provides a cushion (margin of safety) relative to the high priced (multiple) growth and momentum names that have led the market. That has not generally been my experience. In a large market pullback all names seem to fall together.

Value names tend to outperform at the beginning (inflexion point) in a market cycle and toward the middle-end of a market cycle. Growth and momentum names dominate (or lead) the market through the middle of a cycle. 

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