The odds are that we are getting toward the end of the current upcycle. The market and the economy bottomed in 2009 and have been on an upward or a recovering trajectory ever since.
My prior thesis of a compressed market cycle because the market was not allowed to clear has proven false.
That having been said, a regular (or average) market cycle is about 5 years or so. On that basis we are therefore closer the end of the cycle than the beginning.
I don't see too many people calling for a recession or even of a decline in the economy. It seems to me that the consensus is that growth has been disappointing but that the economy will continue to heal/recover even if it is at a less than stellar rate.
The bond market is confusing the consensus because the consensus is not looking for or fearful of a recession. However, it may well be the canary in the coal mine pointing to the end of the cycle.
My heart is not fearful of an upcoming recession but my head is mulling the probabilities and cautious.
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