Tuesday, January 22, 2013

Balance

I don't see too many imbalances in the system. Equities appear fairly valued. The economy appears to be getting back on track. I guess bonds are the obvious area of imbalance, both in terms of the amount of debt outstanding and the price paid for that debt.

Of course, balance is predicated upon confidence and if confidence evaporates, then balance disappears along with it (or at least adjusts to a lower equilibrium).

The accumulation of overweight (aka as imbalance) is greatest in the sovereign area. But so long as sovereign's can maintain confidence, they can continue to accumulate liabilities.

Look for market reverberations (like in the summer of 2007) for signs of disequilibrium. Japan is the most obvious candidate.

Until then, party like its 1999.


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