Thursday, January 31, 2013
New Being
Jesus is the full embodiment of the New Being. That is the reason that He can say words which no prophet or saint ever said: that nobody knows God save Him and those who receive their knowledge through Him. These words certainly do not mean that He imposes a new theology or a new religious law upon us. They mean rather that He is the New Being in which everybody can participate, because it is universal and omnipresent. Why can He call Himself meek and lowly in heart after He has said words about His uniqueness, words that, in anyone else's mouth, would be blasphemous arrogance? It is because the New Being that forms Him is not created by Him. He is created by it. It has found Him, as it must find us. And since His Being is not the result of His striving and laboring, and since it is not servitude to the religious law but rather victory over religion and law that makes His uniqueness, He does not impose religion and law, burdens and yokes, upon men.
Prophets
All people desire false prophets, who, through the glorification of their gods, glorify their followers, and themselves. People long to be flattered in regard to their desires and virtues, their religious feeling and social activity, their will to power and utopian hopes, their knowledge and love, their family and race, their class and nation.
True prophets are the instruments of God in the actualization of His judgment against mankind. They are instruments in so far as the prophetic word always excites the opposition of man with respect both to his vital existence and his moral and religious existence - indeed, particularly with respect to his religious existence.
True prophets are the instruments of God in the actualization of His judgment against mankind. They are instruments in so far as the prophetic word always excites the opposition of man with respect both to his vital existence and his moral and religious existence - indeed, particularly with respect to his religious existence.
The Yoke of Religion
"Come unto me, all ye that labor and are heavy laden, and I will give you rest. Take my yoke upon you, and learn of me; for I am meek and lowly in heart; and ye shall find rest unto your souls. For my yoke is easy, and my burden is light."
Matthew 11: 29-30
These words of Jesus are universal, and fit every human being and every human situation. They are simple; they grasp the heart of the primitive as well as that of the profound, disturbing the mind of the wise. Practically every word of Jesus had this character.
What is the labor and burden from which we can find rest through Him?
It is not the labor or burden of life. Jesus does not promise us escape from life's travails and tragedies. The burden He wants to lift from us is the burden of religion. It is the yoke of the law, imposed on religious people at all times. We know we are more than dust, and yet we know that we are also going to be dust. We know we are of a higher order than that of our animal needs and desires; and yet we know that we shall abuse the higher order in the service of our lower nature. This is man; and because this is man, there is religion and law. The law of religion is the great attempt of man to overcome his anxiety and restlessness and despair, to close the gap within himself, and to reach immortality, spirituality, and perfection. So he labors and toils under the religious law in thought and in act. He labors and toils under the religious demand to believe things he cannot believe. Finally, he tries to escape the law of religion. But in doing so, he becomes skeptical, cynical and critical. He replaces one yoke for another. The religious law demands the perfect in all respects. And our conscience agrees with this demand. But the split in our being is derived from just this: that the perfect, although it is the truth, is beyond us, against us, judging and condemning us.
What is the easy yoke and the light burden which He will put upon us?
The yoke Jesus gives us is the "New Being." The new life above religion; outside religion. Victory over the law. Jesus is more than a priest or a prophet or a religious genius. These are all subject to religion. He frees us from religion. He overcomes the religious laws. The yoke of Jesus is easy in itself, because it is above law, and replaces the toiling and laboring with rest in our souls. It is not a new demand, a new doctrine, or new morals, but rather a new reality, a new being, and a new power of transforming life. He calls it a yoke, He means that it comes from above and grasps us with saving force. We know that now, in this moment, we are in the good, in spite of all our weakness and evil, in spite of the fragmentary and distorted character of our Self and the world. We have not become more moral or more saintly; we still belong to a world which is subject to evil and self-destruction. But the good of life is in us, uniting us with the good of everything, giving us the blessed experience of universal love. It is the uniqueness and the mystery of His Being, the embodiment, the full appearance of the New Being. He does not seek to impose a new religion upon anyone. Rather that He is the New Being in which everybody can participate, because it is universal and omnipresent.
Matthew 11: 29-30
These words of Jesus are universal, and fit every human being and every human situation. They are simple; they grasp the heart of the primitive as well as that of the profound, disturbing the mind of the wise. Practically every word of Jesus had this character.
What is the labor and burden from which we can find rest through Him?
It is not the labor or burden of life. Jesus does not promise us escape from life's travails and tragedies. The burden He wants to lift from us is the burden of religion. It is the yoke of the law, imposed on religious people at all times. We know we are more than dust, and yet we know that we are also going to be dust. We know we are of a higher order than that of our animal needs and desires; and yet we know that we shall abuse the higher order in the service of our lower nature. This is man; and because this is man, there is religion and law. The law of religion is the great attempt of man to overcome his anxiety and restlessness and despair, to close the gap within himself, and to reach immortality, spirituality, and perfection. So he labors and toils under the religious law in thought and in act. He labors and toils under the religious demand to believe things he cannot believe. Finally, he tries to escape the law of religion. But in doing so, he becomes skeptical, cynical and critical. He replaces one yoke for another. The religious law demands the perfect in all respects. And our conscience agrees with this demand. But the split in our being is derived from just this: that the perfect, although it is the truth, is beyond us, against us, judging and condemning us.
What is the easy yoke and the light burden which He will put upon us?
The yoke Jesus gives us is the "New Being." The new life above religion; outside religion. Victory over the law. Jesus is more than a priest or a prophet or a religious genius. These are all subject to religion. He frees us from religion. He overcomes the religious laws. The yoke of Jesus is easy in itself, because it is above law, and replaces the toiling and laboring with rest in our souls. It is not a new demand, a new doctrine, or new morals, but rather a new reality, a new being, and a new power of transforming life. He calls it a yoke, He means that it comes from above and grasps us with saving force. We know that now, in this moment, we are in the good, in spite of all our weakness and evil, in spite of the fragmentary and distorted character of our Self and the world. We have not become more moral or more saintly; we still belong to a world which is subject to evil and self-destruction. But the good of life is in us, uniting us with the good of everything, giving us the blessed experience of universal love. It is the uniqueness and the mystery of His Being, the embodiment, the full appearance of the New Being. He does not seek to impose a new religion upon anyone. Rather that He is the New Being in which everybody can participate, because it is universal and omnipresent.
Friday, January 25, 2013
Psalm 90 - excerpts
From eternity to eternity thou art God.
Like grass which grows up,
That in the dawn is fresh and flourishing,
Then by twilight fades and withers
Our life is seventy years
Or eighty at the most.
Yet is their pride
But toil and disappointment -
For it is soon gone and we fly away.
We bring our years to an end as a sigh.
So teach us to count our days
That we may get a heart of wisdom!
Grant us joy as long as thou has been afflicting us,
For all the years we have had suffering.
And let the favor of the Lord our God be upon us
And prosper the work of our hands!
Like grass which grows up,
That in the dawn is fresh and flourishing,
Then by twilight fades and withers
Our life is seventy years
Or eighty at the most.
Yet is their pride
But toil and disappointment -
For it is soon gone and we fly away.
We bring our years to an end as a sigh.
So teach us to count our days
That we may get a heart of wisdom!
Grant us joy as long as thou has been afflicting us,
For all the years we have had suffering.
And let the favor of the Lord our God be upon us
And prosper the work of our hands!
Thursday, January 24, 2013
More on Depth
It is comfortable to live on the surface so long as it remains unshaken. The depth of suffering is the door to the depth of truth. The pain of looking into one's own depth is too intense for most people. They would rather return to the shaken and devastated surface of their former lives and thoughts.
The prophets of all time can tell us of the hating resistance which they provoke by their daring to uncover the depths of social judgment and social hope.
Our attempt to avoid the road which leads to such a depth of suffering and our use of pretexts to avoid it are natural. One of the methods, and a very superficial one, is the assertion that deep things are sophisticated things, unintelligible to an uneducated mind. But the market of real depth is simplicity. For you ought to know that nothing of real importance is too profound for anyone. It is not because it is too profound, but rather because it is too uncomfortable, that you shy away from the truth.
Every step into the depth of thought is a breaking away from the surface of former thoughts.
Note: Keep in mind that Tillich was addressing a deeply traumatized post-war crowd, and had himself, the disillusionment of the German people in his mind.
The prophets of all time can tell us of the hating resistance which they provoke by their daring to uncover the depths of social judgment and social hope.
Our attempt to avoid the road which leads to such a depth of suffering and our use of pretexts to avoid it are natural. One of the methods, and a very superficial one, is the assertion that deep things are sophisticated things, unintelligible to an uneducated mind. But the market of real depth is simplicity. For you ought to know that nothing of real importance is too profound for anyone. It is not because it is too profound, but rather because it is too uncomfortable, that you shy away from the truth.
Every step into the depth of thought is a breaking away from the surface of former thoughts.
Note: Keep in mind that Tillich was addressing a deeply traumatized post-war crowd, and had himself, the disillusionment of the German people in his mind.
Wednesday, January 23, 2013
The Depth of Existence
Most of our life continues on the surface. We are enslaved by the routine of our daily lives, in work and leisure, in business and recreation. We are overwhelmed by innumerable dealings, both good and bad. We are more driven than driving. We do not stop to look at the height above us, or to the depth below us. We are always moving forward, although usually in a circle, which finally brings us back to the place from which we first moved. We are in constant motion and never stop to plunge into the depth. We talk and talk and never listen to the voices speaking to our depth and from our depth. We accept ourselves as we appear to ourselves, and do not care what we really are. Like hit-and-run drivers, we injure our souls by the speed with which we move on the surface; and then we rush away, leaving our bleeding souls alone. We miss, therefore, our depth and our true life. And it is only when the picture that we have of ourselves breaks down completely, only when we find ourselves acting against all the expectations we had derived from that picture, and only when an earthquake shakes and disrupts the surface of our self-knowledge, that we are willing to look into a deeper level of our being.
Paul Tillich, Sermon on "The Depth of Existence," in The Shaking of the Foundations
Paul Tillich, Sermon on "The Depth of Existence," in The Shaking of the Foundations
Tuesday, January 22, 2013
Balance
I don't see too many imbalances in the system. Equities appear fairly valued. The economy appears to be getting back on track. I guess bonds are the obvious area of imbalance, both in terms of the amount of debt outstanding and the price paid for that debt.
Of course, balance is predicated upon confidence and if confidence evaporates, then balance disappears along with it (or at least adjusts to a lower equilibrium).
The accumulation of overweight (aka as imbalance) is greatest in the sovereign area. But so long as sovereign's can maintain confidence, they can continue to accumulate liabilities.
Look for market reverberations (like in the summer of 2007) for signs of disequilibrium. Japan is the most obvious candidate.
Until then, party like its 1999.
Of course, balance is predicated upon confidence and if confidence evaporates, then balance disappears along with it (or at least adjusts to a lower equilibrium).
The accumulation of overweight (aka as imbalance) is greatest in the sovereign area. But so long as sovereign's can maintain confidence, they can continue to accumulate liabilities.
Look for market reverberations (like in the summer of 2007) for signs of disequilibrium. Japan is the most obvious candidate.
Until then, party like its 1999.
I Guess We're Not In Kansas Anymore
The central banks have fled the coop and are in Oz. The markets are a bedlam of optimism.
As if unlimited monetary easing was not enough (I guess the zero bound puts a kink in a few models). Yesterday the Bank of Japan's adopted a 2% inflation target (nothing sensational, except the country has been stuck in the mire for two decades...an asset/debt bubble will do that to you) and unlimited asset purchases, joining its compatriots (in monetary crime) at the Fed and the ECB.
The potential for negative unknown and unintended consequences increases. The margin for error has decreased.
The cost of post-GFC bailing is accumulating in the system and at some point will hit a tipping point. The effectiveness of monetary policy is diminishing with each cast of the die.
Until then, party on Garth.
As if unlimited monetary easing was not enough (I guess the zero bound puts a kink in a few models). Yesterday the Bank of Japan's adopted a 2% inflation target (nothing sensational, except the country has been stuck in the mire for two decades...an asset/debt bubble will do that to you) and unlimited asset purchases, joining its compatriots (in monetary crime) at the Fed and the ECB.
The potential for negative unknown and unintended consequences increases. The margin for error has decreased.
The cost of post-GFC bailing is accumulating in the system and at some point will hit a tipping point. The effectiveness of monetary policy is diminishing with each cast of the die.
Until then, party on Garth.
Saturday, January 19, 2013
Ten Anti-Fragility Principles for a Robust Society
1. What is fragile should break early, while it's still small.
Evolution in economic life helps those with the maximum amount of hidden risks become the biggest.
2. No socialization of losses and privatization of gains.
Whatever may need to be bailed out should be nationalized; whatever does not need to be bailed out should be free, small, and risk-bearing.
3. People who were driving a school bus blindfolded (and crashed it) should never be given a new bus.
4. Don't let someone making an "incentive" bonus manage a nuclear plant-or your financial risk.
Bonuses don't accommodate the hidden risks of blowups. It is the asymmetry of the bonus system that got us here. No incentives without disincentives: capitalism is about rewards and punishments, not just rewards.
5. Compensate complexity with simplicity.
Complexity from globalization and highly networked economic life needs to be countered by simplicity in financial products. The complex economy is already a form of leverage. It's the leverage of efficiency. Complex systems survive thanks to slack and redundancy, not debt and optimization. Capitalism cannot avoid fads or bubbles.
6. Do not give children dynamite sticks, even if they come with a warning label.
Complex financial products need to be banned because nobody understands them, and few are rational enough to know it.
7. Only ponzi schemes should depend on confidence. Governments should never need to "restore confidence."
Cascading rumors are a product of complex systems.
8. Do not give an addict more drugs if he has withdrawal pains.
Using leverage to cure the problems of too much leverage is not homeopathy, it's denial.
9. Citizens should not depend on financial assets as a repository of value and should not rely on fallible "expert" advice for their retirement.
Economic life should be definancialized. We should learn not to use markets as warehouses of value. They do not harbor the certainties that normal citizens can require.
10. Make an omelet with a broken egg.
We need to break things down in order to make them more simple, more robust.
Evolution in economic life helps those with the maximum amount of hidden risks become the biggest.
2. No socialization of losses and privatization of gains.
Whatever may need to be bailed out should be nationalized; whatever does not need to be bailed out should be free, small, and risk-bearing.
3. People who were driving a school bus blindfolded (and crashed it) should never be given a new bus.
4. Don't let someone making an "incentive" bonus manage a nuclear plant-or your financial risk.
Bonuses don't accommodate the hidden risks of blowups. It is the asymmetry of the bonus system that got us here. No incentives without disincentives: capitalism is about rewards and punishments, not just rewards.
5. Compensate complexity with simplicity.
Complexity from globalization and highly networked economic life needs to be countered by simplicity in financial products. The complex economy is already a form of leverage. It's the leverage of efficiency. Complex systems survive thanks to slack and redundancy, not debt and optimization. Capitalism cannot avoid fads or bubbles.
6. Do not give children dynamite sticks, even if they come with a warning label.
Complex financial products need to be banned because nobody understands them, and few are rational enough to know it.
7. Only ponzi schemes should depend on confidence. Governments should never need to "restore confidence."
Cascading rumors are a product of complex systems.
8. Do not give an addict more drugs if he has withdrawal pains.
Using leverage to cure the problems of too much leverage is not homeopathy, it's denial.
9. Citizens should not depend on financial assets as a repository of value and should not rely on fallible "expert" advice for their retirement.
Economic life should be definancialized. We should learn not to use markets as warehouses of value. They do not harbor the certainties that normal citizens can require.
10. Make an omelet with a broken egg.
We need to break things down in order to make them more simple, more robust.
Phronetic Rules: What is wise to do to mitigate the fourth quadrant
Can't get away from Taleb.
The fourth quadrant is where the difference between absence of evidence and evidence of absence becomes acute. It is where Extremistan mixes with Complexity, aka the Black Swan domain.
He says the most obvious way to exit the fourth quadrant is by "truncating," cutting certain exposures by purchasing insurance, when available, and by putting oneself in a barbell situation, ie. take small amount of big risk and a large amount of little or no risk.
Rules to Increase Robustness
(1) Have respect for time and nondemonstrative knowledge.
(2) Avoid optimization; learn to love redundancy*.
(3) Avoid prediction of small probability payoffs - though not necessarily of ordinary ones.
(4) Beware of "atypicality" of remote events**.
(5) Beware moral hazard with bonus payments***.
(6) Avoid some metrics****.
(7) Positive or negative Black Swan.
(8) Do not confuse absence of volatility with absence of risk.
(9) Beware presentations of risk numbers.
*Redundancy in the financial realm is lots of cash under the mattress. Cash is the opposite of debt.
**This relates to the assumptions underlying MPT and the non-stationarity of the data. He calls scenario analysis and stress testing "sucker methods" because they are based on the past (which is not necessarily a good guide to the future).
***Akin to the asset liability mismatch in banking is the timing mismatch between bonus' paid for short term performance when risks and ultimate demise are increasing over time (moral hazard).
****Conventional metrics (std deviation, linear regression, etc.) based on an assumption of Mediocristan don't apply to the fourth quadrant (Extremistan). The evolution into Extremistan is marked by lowering volatility. Risk perception is subject to framing issues that are acute in the fourth quadrant.
The fourth quadrant is where the difference between absence of evidence and evidence of absence becomes acute. It is where Extremistan mixes with Complexity, aka the Black Swan domain.
He says the most obvious way to exit the fourth quadrant is by "truncating," cutting certain exposures by purchasing insurance, when available, and by putting oneself in a barbell situation, ie. take small amount of big risk and a large amount of little or no risk.
Rules to Increase Robustness
(1) Have respect for time and nondemonstrative knowledge.
(2) Avoid optimization; learn to love redundancy*.
(3) Avoid prediction of small probability payoffs - though not necessarily of ordinary ones.
(4) Beware of "atypicality" of remote events**.
(5) Beware moral hazard with bonus payments***.
(6) Avoid some metrics****.
(7) Positive or negative Black Swan.
(8) Do not confuse absence of volatility with absence of risk.
(9) Beware presentations of risk numbers.
*Redundancy in the financial realm is lots of cash under the mattress. Cash is the opposite of debt.
**This relates to the assumptions underlying MPT and the non-stationarity of the data. He calls scenario analysis and stress testing "sucker methods" because they are based on the past (which is not necessarily a good guide to the future).
***Akin to the asset liability mismatch in banking is the timing mismatch between bonus' paid for short term performance when risks and ultimate demise are increasing over time (moral hazard).
****Conventional metrics (std deviation, linear regression, etc.) based on an assumption of Mediocristan don't apply to the fourth quadrant (Extremistan). The evolution into Extremistan is marked by lowering volatility. Risk perception is subject to framing issues that are acute in the fourth quadrant.
Iatrogenics - The Study of Harm Caused by the Healer
More Taleb.
He applies the principle of iatrogenics to regulation and the regulatory response to crisis, and I tend to agree. He says, you cannot do anything with knowledge unless you know where it stops, and the cost of using it. The call for more (unconditional) regulation of economic activity appears to be a normal response to crisis.
The problem with regulation in my mind is that it tends to only add to the existing body of regulation, when in fact what he is saying is the solution may require either less regulation or the addition of new regulations in conjunction with the stripping away of old regulations.
Given that we only "look through the glass darkly" ie. don't know the whole truth, and given the political systems and institutions in place, we are prone to only add new regulation when a problem arises.
Ultimately, the weight of an over-regulated edifice will come toppling down and we will break it all down and rebuild from scratch again.
He applies the principle of iatrogenics to regulation and the regulatory response to crisis, and I tend to agree. He says, you cannot do anything with knowledge unless you know where it stops, and the cost of using it. The call for more (unconditional) regulation of economic activity appears to be a normal response to crisis.
The problem with regulation in my mind is that it tends to only add to the existing body of regulation, when in fact what he is saying is the solution may require either less regulation or the addition of new regulations in conjunction with the stripping away of old regulations.
Given that we only "look through the glass darkly" ie. don't know the whole truth, and given the political systems and institutions in place, we are prone to only add new regulation when a problem arises.
Ultimately, the weight of an over-regulated edifice will come toppling down and we will break it all down and rebuild from scratch again.
Acts of Commission and Acts of Omission
Taleb makes the point that the economic cost of acts of commission and acts of omission are equivalent (and I like this, a dollar not lost is a dollar earned), but that in our minds they are very different.
People do not realize that success consists mainly in avoiding losses, not in trying to derive profits.
He says that positive advice is usually the province of the charlatan (don't hold back Nassim...tell us what you really think). And he uses the example of bookshelves being full of books on how someone became successful, and how there are very few about those who went bankrupt.
Linked to this need for positive advice is the preference we have to do something rather than nothing, even in cases when doing something is harmful.
I would just make the point that the finance industry is built on this fallacy and takes advantage of this psychological glitch in our make-up.
People do not realize that success consists mainly in avoiding losses, not in trying to derive profits.
He says that positive advice is usually the province of the charlatan (don't hold back Nassim...tell us what you really think). And he uses the example of bookshelves being full of books on how someone became successful, and how there are very few about those who went bankrupt.
Linked to this need for positive advice is the preference we have to do something rather than nothing, even in cases when doing something is harmful.
I would just make the point that the finance industry is built on this fallacy and takes advantage of this psychological glitch in our make-up.
Tuesday, January 15, 2013
Taking A Stand
At what point do you take a stand against something?
It is easy to berate those who chafe against society's decline. Those who fight the tide of changing cultural norms. Far easier to just go with the flow, hoping/pretending that there is nothing you can do. Complacency can be a killer.
But at what point do you join the fight. And what issues.
History is on the side of those who stand for what is right. In a relativistic world that can be hard to discern, and a lonely road to take.
It is easy to berate those who chafe against society's decline. Those who fight the tide of changing cultural norms. Far easier to just go with the flow, hoping/pretending that there is nothing you can do. Complacency can be a killer.
But at what point do you join the fight. And what issues.
History is on the side of those who stand for what is right. In a relativistic world that can be hard to discern, and a lonely road to take.
Monday, January 14, 2013
A Lost Generation-A Lost Witness
There is no singular explanation for the decline of the church. But when the church loses its voice, it loses its legitimacy.
And that is what happened in Nazi Germany when the church settled for co-existence with the Nazi state. In the wake of that moral failure, is it any surprise that many in Germany and the rest of Europe see no need for the church. If it was irrelevant then (and in many cases complicit), it seems even more irrelevant now. When the church can't speak out against tyranny, then it has no ability to say "follow me". It is an impostor, a white washed tomb. This applies at an institutional level with obvious exceptions at the individual level (eg. Dietrich Bonhoeffer, Sophie Scholl and countless others).
I think there is at least one related parallel today. Specifically, the evangelical movement's immersion in politics. It is hard to serve as a witness to Jesus Christ when shallow political sloganeering implies some form of heaven-on-earth through government. This denigrates the sovereignty of Jesus Christ and erects an idol that will inevitably fall.
The sooner, the better.
And that is what happened in Nazi Germany when the church settled for co-existence with the Nazi state. In the wake of that moral failure, is it any surprise that many in Germany and the rest of Europe see no need for the church. If it was irrelevant then (and in many cases complicit), it seems even more irrelevant now. When the church can't speak out against tyranny, then it has no ability to say "follow me". It is an impostor, a white washed tomb. This applies at an institutional level with obvious exceptions at the individual level (eg. Dietrich Bonhoeffer, Sophie Scholl and countless others).
I think there is at least one related parallel today. Specifically, the evangelical movement's immersion in politics. It is hard to serve as a witness to Jesus Christ when shallow political sloganeering implies some form of heaven-on-earth through government. This denigrates the sovereignty of Jesus Christ and erects an idol that will inevitably fall.
The sooner, the better.
Friday, January 11, 2013
We Can't All Be Great
I am not great. But I generally know when someone or something else is great, and appreciate what they do or reveal.
We can't all be great. If everyone was great, then nothing would be great.
I do think though, that sometimes non-great people can do great things. Acts of heroism are an example.
Historic greatness however is being able to do something or reveal something that had not be seen or revealed previously.
We can't all be great. If everyone was great, then nothing would be great.
I do think though, that sometimes non-great people can do great things. Acts of heroism are an example.
Historic greatness however is being able to do something or reveal something that had not be seen or revealed previously.
Monks of Greed
Dostoevsky described gamblers as the monks of greed. In Muggeridge's words. Singularly focused on getting money. Gambling as the "reductio ad absurdum" of money. Just to get it, and lose it on the next turn. To acquire riches by chance, and then lose them as suddenly and unaccountably.
I suspect that phenomenon has only increased to our present time and manifests itself in more ways now.
I suspect that phenomenon has only increased to our present time and manifests itself in more ways now.
Going Against The Grain
It is hard to put the kabosh on something when it is working well for you.
As the market rises, you begin rationalizing that all those winners are worth a lot more than where they are and the market is only now waking up to that fact.
By nature I am a contrarian, but I have learned greater patience in letting my winners run (need to work on cutting my losers loose). This has not necessarily been to my benefit as, although the markets have been positively trending since the low, I would have been better off at times looking to trade in and out of positions more actively.
Still, even though the trend is positive and I think we are moving away from the edge, I reduced my exposure to those names that have significantly outperformed and raised a little cash to provide cognitive support should the market trade back down and a little extra powder should any conviction opportunities present themselves.
I didn't feel like selling, but overruled my emotive state. I've seen a colleague do that before and thought he did a good job of it. It is kind of, "the markets have had a great run, I don't see anything that should lead me to sell per se, but I know things don't move in a straight line and it seems prudent to book a little profit ahead of the game."
As the market rises, you begin rationalizing that all those winners are worth a lot more than where they are and the market is only now waking up to that fact.
By nature I am a contrarian, but I have learned greater patience in letting my winners run (need to work on cutting my losers loose). This has not necessarily been to my benefit as, although the markets have been positively trending since the low, I would have been better off at times looking to trade in and out of positions more actively.
Still, even though the trend is positive and I think we are moving away from the edge, I reduced my exposure to those names that have significantly outperformed and raised a little cash to provide cognitive support should the market trade back down and a little extra powder should any conviction opportunities present themselves.
I didn't feel like selling, but overruled my emotive state. I've seen a colleague do that before and thought he did a good job of it. It is kind of, "the markets have had a great run, I don't see anything that should lead me to sell per se, but I know things don't move in a straight line and it seems prudent to book a little profit ahead of the game."
Tuesday, January 8, 2013
Sadness
Deep sadness over the passing of Mary Feagin-Phillips.
She was a beacon of light, showing us how to live.
She was a beacon of light, showing us how to live.
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