Monday, November 8, 2010

All Roads Lead to Inflation

At this point, all roads lead to inflation. This may be strange given that there are strong deflationary forces brought about by the deleveraging from a balance sheet recession still in the system.

But if you take a step back. The Fed is implicitly (if not explicitly) trying to create it. The third world is experiencing it. Risky asset prices are reflecting it. The markets are beginning to come around to it.

We're playing with fire here.

Most historical studies indicate that inflation is generally positive for risky assets, but too much inflation is bad. Hyperinflation is another thing all together, leading to the wipe out of an existing order/system. But even if we don't see hyperinflation, only inflation, there are assets that provide a better store of value than others. What inflation does is force you to do something. You can't just sit there (and especially not at the moment with cash and bond yields so low).

If it true that all roads lead to inflation, then how can investors best preserve their purchasing power? What stores of value will help protect investors against inflation? How should investors best approach this problem? Investors need to take greater risk with their asset allocation. Being fearful and leaving money in cash or bonds is perhaps the worst thing they can do.

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