Friday, September 17, 2010

Big picture update

Things unchanged.

Since the crisis, the authorities have propped the system up through QE and fiscal stimulus. But even that failed to stop asset price deflation. Into the bargain, people are still unemployed resulting in contracted incomes, and scared witless consumers. Worse than that, we have seen no credible attempts to address the real flaws in the system (global structural imbalances, unfunded entitlement liabilities, financial moral hazard).

Recovery will ensue, but it will be a languid, stop-start affair. Even as the recovery takes hold and confidence returns, the economy will be racked by secular headwinds (interest rate unwind, higher taxes, delevering consumer, fiscal belt-tightening). None of which means that equities will necessarily be a bad place to reside (they'll be solid because we're starting from a low base, they just won't be spectacular).

The costs of the artificial pumping will be bourne by current taxpayers and future generations.

Implications: multi-year stagnation.

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