Wednesday, November 11, 2009

Fish out of water

I feel like such a fish out of water.

I have essentially been fighting this move since the end of June. It doesn't make sense to me, it doesn't feel right to me. But there it is, another 30% on top of the initial 35% move off the low.

I am typically slow in getting with the party, which is a terrible trait to have in modern financial markets that are dominated by momentum and trend following strategies.

When I looked at the market a few months back I could see that the market had its gander up and that 1200 was within its sights. The problem was I just couldn't buy into it. I was fearful that at any point, the market could lose faith and crater again...and I didn't want to chance that. To make matters worse, I have been especially out of position in the energy, materials, and consumer cyclical areas.

At everypoint, one must re-assess ones conviction, and determine whether it makes sense to change tact.

I think I'll hang tough to see whether it'll break 1200 (but that could change tomorrow).

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