Friday, October 16, 2009

Back at it again

No sooner had we rallied 60%+ off the bottom than the bulge bracket boys were back at it again...you just can't wean them off cheap money.

Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Credit Suisse, Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Biggs, Wien, et al - they've all declared it safe to get back in the water. These are firms and guys who have never known an asset they didn't want to buy (or sell to someone). Whether out of habit, or simply because it is in their best interests, they are back playing the same old tune.

"All is well. We love equities. We love commodities. We love bonds. We hate cash."

The "buy" bias that pervades the street is understandable, but reprehensible. It pays scant regard to those traumatized by the financial market implosion, and the possibility that they may be leading them back to slaughter. It wouldn't be so bad if they got the turn right, but the fact they are only now coming out with the "all clear," is a recipe for disaster (we're now at the stage of the sucker rally).

Given the still strong negative sentiment shrouding the market, given the momentum in the market, given the recovery in the economy, given an open monetary faucet, and given the big boys all marching their clients back into the market, the rally still has legs (1200 here we come...but we're coming around the end turn).

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